Huracan Katrina: Dos años despues

Saludos y buenas noches. Les habla su amiga Maria Santiago. Esta noche vamos a hablar sobre el Huracan Katrina cuyo segundo aniversario se recordó ayer el area del Golfo de Mejico, especificamente en la cuidad de New Orleans, Lousiana.



Ayer 29 de agosto de 2007 se cumplieron dos años del azote del poderoso Huracan Katrina en la region del Golfo de Mejico, en los estados de Lousiana, Missisipi y Alabama. El lunes 29 de agosto de 2005 el huracan Katrina hizo la primera de sus dos entradas en tierra en la region del Golfo de Mejico por el area de Buras, Louisiana hacia el este de la cuidad de New Orleans como un huracan categoria 3 con vientos de 125mph a las 6:10am hora central. El dia antes domingo 28, Katrina habia alcanzado su maxima intensidad con vientos de 175mph y presion barometrica de 902mb, lo cual en aquel momento lo coloco como el cuarto huracan mas intenso de la cuenca Atlantica; actualmente ocupa el sexto lugar pues despues de Katrina vino Rita con 897mb y luego Wilma con 882mb. Al principio se penso que Katrina habia entrado a tierra con intensidad de Categoria 4 pero el NHC en su analisis postemporada determino que a base de los datos en ese momento Katrina era un Categoria 3. Katrina hizo su segunda y final entrada a tierra en el area del borde entre Lousiana y Missisipi mas tarde en la mañana provocando una marejada ciclonica de casi 28 pies en el area de Gulfport Missisipi, rivalizando con el record que tenia el Huracan Camille de 1969 de 27 pies cerca de la misma area.

La historia de Katrina comenzo con la interaccion de los remanentes de la depresion tropical #10, una onda tropical y una vaguada cerca de las Islas Bahamas. Se comenzaron a emitir avisos sobre la recien formada depresion tropical #12 el dia 23 de agosto de 2005. El dia 24 la DT 12 se convirtio en la tormenta tropical Katrina basado en los datos de un avion de reconocimiento. Tarde el dia 25 de agosto Katrina se convirtio en huracan y afecto el sur de la Florida como un Categoria 1. La interaccion con tierra la debilito a tormenta tropical pero gano fuerza huracanada una vez llego a las aguas del Golfo de Mejico. Al llegar al Golfo de Mejico Katrina comienza a intensificarse. De categoria 1 subio a categoria 3 ademas de aumentar considerablemente su tamaño. De categoria 3 aumento a categoria 5 en menos de 12 horas gracias a las aguas bien calientes de la corriente del Golfo con las que se topo. Ahi fue que alcanzo la maxima intensidad antes mencionada. Mas tarde el domingo se fue debilitando debido a un proceso de reestructuracion de las paredes del ojo, proceso que contribuyo a su rapido debilitamiento hasta llegar a tierra como un categoria 3 aunque con un enorme tamaño. Katrina entro a tierra y gradualmente se fue debilitando hasta que sus remanentes fueron absorbidos por un sistema frontal en los Grandes Lagos el 31 de agosto de 2005.

Como todos sabemos Katrina causo muchas muertes, destruccion y desolacion por las areas que afecto, en especial en el Golfo de Mejico. Hasta el dia de hoy se cuentan mas de 1800 personas muertas y mas de 80 billones de dolares en perdidas, haciendo de Katrina el huracan mas costoso en afectar a los Estados Unidos, el tercero en causar mas muertos (luego del Huracan de Galveston en 1900 y del Lake Ockechobee Hurricane de 1928, que es el San Felipe 2 que nos azoto a nosotros.) Ademas es considerado el peor desastre natural en la historia de los Estados Unidos. Gran parte de la atencion a los estragos de Katrina se le dio a la diezmada cuidad de New Orleans en el estado de Lousiana. New Orleans es una cuidad que se encuentra de 10 a 12 pies por debajo del nivel del mar por lo que la marejada ciclonica y la ruptura de los diques que protegian la cuidad causaron que cerca del 80% de la cuidad quedara bajo agua y las personas tuvieran que buscar refugio y ser rescatadas de los techos de sus casas. Practicamente el Lago Pontchartrain se vacio sobre la cuidad. Se refugiaron mas de 20,000 personas en el Super Dome lo cual creo un caos. Las autoridades correspondientes no respondieron como era su obligacion y por consiguiente hubo mucho sufrimiento y destruccion en New Orleans y los otros estados afectados por Katrina. Hoy en dia cerca de 450,000 habitantes de New Orleans que huyeron por Katrina no han regresado a la cuidad y la recuperacion de la misma al dia de hoy sigue lenta.

A continuacion les posteo una serie de avisos relacionados a Katrina. El mas contudente es el mensaje que emitio la oficina del NWS en New Orleans el domingo 28 de agosto de 2005. En mi vida he leido un mensaje tan directo y contundente.





1. Primer boletin de Katrina como DT



Tropical Depression TWELVE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005 CORRECTED WARNING SECTION ...TWELFTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS INCLUDES CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY... SAN SALVADOR...NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THE ABACOS... ANDROS ISLAND ...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INDICATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...23.2 N... 75.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART $$



2. Katrina se convierte en tormenta tropical



Tropical Storm KATRINA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR FLORIDA... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 230 MILES... 375 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 76.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART



3. Katrina se convierte en huracan antes de llegar al sur de la Florida



Hurricane KATRINA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005 ...STRENGTHENING HURRICANE KATRINA BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT. AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE... INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE INLAND ALONG SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS EVENING. REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTERWARDS AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 64 MPH WAS REPORTED AT BOCA RATON. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE MOVING ONSHORE THE COASTAL AREAS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 79.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EDT AND 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART



4. Katrina como un poderoso y potencialmente catastrofico categoria 5



Hurricane KATRINA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB...26.78 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH



5. Katrina haciendo la primera de sus dos entradas a tierra en la region del Golfo de Mejico.



Hurricane KATRINA -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005 CORRECTED TIMES TO 6 AM CDT ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA PREPARING TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR SOUTHERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH LOUISIANA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 6 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN GRAND ISLE AND THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH... AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATRINA WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PLAQUEMINES PARISH NEAR EMPIRE AND BURAS LOUSIANA WITHIN THE ENXT HOUR...AND REACH THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH WITH A GUST TO 85 MPH WAS REPORTED AT NEW ORLEANS LAKEFRONT AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 74 MPH WITH A GUST TO 96 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN BELLE CHASSE LOUISIANA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. NOAA BUOY 42040 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RECENTLY REPORTED WAVES HEIGHTS OF AT LEAST 47 FEET. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 6 AM CDT POSITION...29.1 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 918 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT. FORECASTER STEWART



6. Contundente mensaje del NWS en New Orleans el domingo 28 de agosto de 2005, a horas del azote de Katrina.



Urgent-Weather Message National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1011am CDT Sun Aug 28 2005 Devastating damage expected…. Hurricane Katrina…A most powerful hurricane with unprecedented strength…Rivaling the intensity of Hurricane Camille of 1969 Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks..perhaps longer.At least one half of well constructed homes will have roof and wall failure.All gabled roofs will fail.. leaving those homes severely damaged or destroyed The majority of industrial buildings will become non functional..Partial to complete wall and roof failure is expected.All wood framed low rising apartment buildings will be destroyed.Concrete block low rise apartments will sustain major damage… High rise office and apartment buildings will sway dangerously..A few to the point of total collapse.All windows will blow out. Airborne debris will be widespread..and may include heavy items such as household appliances and even light vehicles.Sport utility vehicles and light trucks will be moved.The blown debris will create additional destruction. Persons…pets and livestock exposed to the winds will face certain death if struck Power outages will last for weeks..As most power poles will be down and transformers destroyed. Water shortages will make human suffering incredible by modern standards. The vast majority of native trees will be snapped or uprooted. Only the heartliest will remain standingBut be totally defoliated. Few crops will remain.Lifesotck left exposed to the winds will be killed. An inland hurricane wind warning is issued when sustained winds near hurricane force… Or frequent gusts at or above hurricane force…are certain within the next 12 to 24 hours. Once tropical storm and hurricane force winds onset….Do no venture outside!!!



Para mas informacion les recomiendo las siguientes lecturas y/o videos.



Informe oficial del NHC Huracan Katrina

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL122005_Katrina.pdf



Libro sobre el desastre de Katrina en New Orleans

The Storm: What went wrong and why during Hurricane Katrina, del Dr. Ivor Van Heerden



Documental sobre Katrina de NOVA

Hurricane Katrina: The storm that drowned a city.



María Santiago

15 años despues del Huracan Andrew

Saludos, buenas noches. Les habla su amiga Maria Santiago. Esta noche les traigo un interesante tema. El pasado viernes 24 de agosto se cumplieron 15 años del azote del huracan Andrew en el sur de la Florida como un huracan Categoria 5, el tercero en tocar tierra en Estados Unidos y el último en tocar tierra como Categoria 5 hasta hace una semanas cuando el Huracan Dean toco tierra en la Peninsula de Yucatan como Categoria 5. Para repasar un poco su historia, aqui les dejo algunos de los avisos posteados para Andrew en agosto de 1992.

1. Primer aviso

ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN AUG 16 1992 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER THE ATLANTIC MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1525 MILES...2455 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...AND LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 38.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD ...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST...MONDAY. MAYFIELD

2. Cuando se convierte tormenta tropical, el primero nombrado de la temporada 1992.

ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON AUG 17 1992 ....FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE MORNING AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ANDREW. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1175 MILES ...1890 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH ...41 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...AND SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.0 N... 43.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD ...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. GERRISH 

3. Primera discusion de Andrew

ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN AUG 16 1992 SATELLITE ANALYSTS AT BOTH SAB AND NHC HAVE BEEN CLASSIFYING THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DVORAK CI NUMBER HAS BEEN 2.0 FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. METEOSAT IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A BANDING TYPE PATTERN AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CLOSE TO THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER...ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING DEPRESSION ADVISORIES. NMC AVIATION MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES...AND ALL TRACK MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18 AND THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVIATION MODEL ALSO INDICATES STRONG 200 MB WINDS FROM THE EAST OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING. IF THE SHEAR IS LIGHTER THAN FORECAST...MORE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 11.2N 38.3W 30 KTS 12HR VT 17/1200Z 11.6N 41.0W 35 KTS 24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.2N 44.6W 35 KTS 36HR VT 18/1200Z 13.0N 48.3W 40 KTS 48HR VT 19/0000Z 13.7N 51.9W 40 KTS 72HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 59.0W 45 KTS 

4. Cuando lo catalogaban como pobremente organizado

ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU AUG 20 1992 ...POORLY ORGANIZED ANDREW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST... REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ANDREW REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF ANDREW WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...360 KM...NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB...29.91 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.0 N... 61.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD ...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. PASCH

5. Cuando postearon avisos de huracan para diferentes areas en la Florida

ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY... HURRICANE ANDREW SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992 A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO POST HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE TRACK REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BASED ON LATEST RECON DATA. LAST PRESSURE WAS 922 MB. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FLEW TO THE NW OF THE HURRICANE AT LOW LEVELS TO DETERMINE THE BEST ESTIMATE OF RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ...AND BASED ON THIS INFORMATION THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS INCREASED TO 90 NMI. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1800Z 25.4N 75.8W 130 KTS 12HR VT 24/0000Z 25.4N 77.3W 130 KTS 24HR VT 24/1200Z 25.5N 80.3W 130 KTS 36HR VT 25/0000Z 26.1N 83.3W 110 KTS 48HR VT 25/1200Z 26.9N 86.2W 110 KTS 72HR VT 26/1200Z 28.5N 91.0W 115 KTS 

6. Acercandose a Florida como Cat 4

ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDREW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ANDREW BEARING DOWN ON SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF VENICE...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...AND ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF VENICE TO BAYPORT. ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...INCLUDING EVACUATIONS ORDERED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES ...300 KM...EAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT THE PRESENT TIME. A WIND GUST TO 120 MPH WAS REPORTED AS THE CENTER PASSED OVER THE NORTHERN END OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. ON THE PRESENT COURSE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN ON THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 145 MPH...235 KM/HR...IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NW BAHAMAS...WITH UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE FOR THE NW SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND KEYS NEAR TO WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 13 FEET IN BISCAYNE BAY. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 11 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...25.4 N... 77.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD ...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. MAYFIELD

7. Ya entrando a Florida

ZCZC MIAWRKAP4 LOC TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 31A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1992 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ANDREW SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTLINE... HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF VENICE...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...AND ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF VENICE TO BAYPORT. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. RADAR DATA...SATELLITE PICTURES...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ANDREW IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE CENTER OF ANDREW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR MIAMI AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHTHOUSE. AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES ...140 KM...EAST OF MIAMI. ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...225 KM/HR...AND SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND KEYS NEAR TO WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 13 FEET IN BISCAYNE BAY. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 11 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION...25.4 N... 78.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD ...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 941 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT 5 AM EDT. RAPPAPORT/GERRISH/PASCH 

Que recuerdos no?? Andrew se catalogo en un principio como un huracan Cat 4 cuando entro al sur de la Florida pero 10 años despues en el 2002 se reclasifico como un huracan Categoria 5 al momento de entrar al sur de la Florida. Su ojo no paso directamente por donde se encontraban las oficinas del NHC en esa epoca pero arranco el radar WSR-57 del techo de esa dependencia al medir una rafaga de 167mph. En el 2002 se dio a conocer que la intensidad de los vientos de Andrew fue de alrededor de 165mph al entrar a tierra en la Florida y la presion barometrica de 922mb (aunque ese dato de la presion ya se tenia) ( la tercera mas baja registrada en suelo de Estados Unidos, despues del Labor Day Hurricane(Florida Keys Hurricane) de 1935 con 892 mb y el huracan Camille en 1969 con 909mb (los otros dos categoria 5 en azotar directamente los Estados Unidos.). Actualmente es el cuarto pues Katrina le arrebato el tercer lugar con 920mb. Oficialmente causo 26 muertes directas y el total entre muertes directas e indirectas fue de 65. En el libro Hurricane Watch: Forecasting the deadliest storms on earth, en el cual uno de los autores es el Dr. Robert(Bob) Sheets( quien era el director del NHC en ese momento) hay un excelente capitulo dedicado al Huracan Andrew. Se los recomiendo. Me parece importante recordar este evento aunque no nos haya afectado de manera directa. Podria ser que algun dia algo asi pasara en Puerto Rico o en cualquier isla hermana del Caribe .Aqui pueden encontrar el informe oficial de Andrew del NHC.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html

Maria Santiago

Predicciones Dr. Gray, NOAA y TSR para lo que resta de temporada 2007

Saludos y buenas noches. Les habla Maria Santiago. La semana pasada les hable sobre la actualizacion del pronostico del Dr. William Grey. Esta semana salio el nuevo pronostico de NOAA y de la firma Tropical Storm Risk(TSR). Como habiamos mencionado, el Dr. Grey bajo levemente sus numeros a: 15 tormentas tropicales, 8 huracanes y 4 de estos intensos. Esta semana NOAA tambien altero levemente su pronostico de la siguiente manera:13-16 tormentas, 7-9 huracanes y 3-5 de estos intensos. Esto es una variacion minima al pronostico anterior y continuan prediciendo una temporada mas activa que lo normal. El reporte de TSR es: 15 tormentas, 8 huracanes y 4 intensos, igual al del Dr. Grey. Los tres reportes insisten en que se espera una temporada activa y al menos el de la NOAA menciona que se espera que se desarrollen condiciones la Niña durante el pico de la temporada, que es hacia donde nos dirigimos. Tambien la NOAA señala que esta temporada podria extenderse hasta noviembre no como la temporada pasada donde debido a la presencia del Niño, basicamente no vimos sistemas en el mes de Noviembre.

Lo importante no es el numero de sistemas que se formen, basta con uno solo para hacer mucho daño y no necesariamente en una temporada activa. El mejor ejemplo fue en 1992 con el Huracan Andrew. Se formo en una temporada bajo lo normal, con solamente 7 sistemas con nombre y es el tercer huracan Categoria 5 que ha azotado a los Estados Unidos. Hay que estar preparados para lo que venga.

Gracias
Maria

Tropico en general, modelos meteorologicos.

Saludos y buenas noches. Hoy el Atlantico tropical esta tranquilo, no hay areas sospechosas para vigilar de cerca aunque ondas por demas interesantes. De Africa hacia las Antillas encontramos de camino tres ondas tropicales. La primera se encuentra cerca de la longitud 33 oeste y la zona de precipitacion esta confinada en el ITCZ. La segunda onda tropical se encuentra cerca de la longitud 47 oeste y la tercera en la 65 oeste. Es esta ultima onda la que se encuentra afectando las Antillas Menores y Puerto Rico y esta interactuando con una vaguada localizada al NE de PR. Se espera que esta onda continue afectando la isla esta noche y que mañana comienze a afectar a la Republica Dominicana y Haiti.

Mirando el modelo GFS en su corrida de las 18Z, vemos algo interesante saliendo de Africa aproximadamente para el dia 12 de agosto que se desarrolla a medida que pasa por aguas del Atlantico y parece llegar a ser un sistema organizado que pasa hacia el NE de PR para el dia 19 de agosto y que hacia el final de la corrida del modelo parece que va a afectar los estados del NE de Estados Unidos. Esto es solo una corrida del modelo que tal vez no se materialize pero que es interesante observar. Ya no estamos en junio ni julio asi que hay que prestar mucha atencion a ver que es lo que muestran los modelos.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/ten_s_loop.shtml

La onda tropical fuerte que salio ayer de las costas de Africa ha perdido conveccion pero sigue siendo un sistema que hay que observar. De Africa esta por salir otra que se ve bastante impresionante y de ahora en adelante vamos a comenzar a ver la parada de ondas tropicales saliendo desde Africa. Estaremos pendientes a todas ellas.

Quiero agradecer a Jose Amoros por la oportunidad que me dio de escribir en este blog por los pasados dias. Espero que hayan disfrutado los temas y los hayan ayudado a mantenerse informados sobre lo que acontece en el tropico. Recuerden que no importa la cantidad de sistemas que se pronostiquen, solo es necesario uno para cambiar para siempre la vida de un pueblo y de las personas en general. Tenemos que estar preparados para lo que venga. No perder la calma y prepararse con tiempo. Es el mejor consejo que les puedo dar. Gracias y nos veremos amigos!!

Maria Santiago

Pronostico del Dr. William Gray de agosto 3 2007

Ayer salio el pronostico preparado por el Dr. William Gray y el Dr. Phil Klotzbach de Colorado State University. Para este pronostico de agosto bajan levemente sus numeros anteriores a: 15 tormentas tropicales, 8 huracanes y 4 huracanes intensos para la temporada ciclonica del 2007. Con los tres sistemas que se han formado(Andrea, Barry y Chantal, todas tormentas tropicales, en el caso de Andrea subtropical), nos queda por ver, segun ellos, 12 tormentas tropicales, 8 huracanes y 4 huracanes intensos. Ellos bajan el pronostico de mayo pasado(17/9/5) por que indican que las condiciones favorables para desarrollo ciclonico no se han presentado como se esperaban, la temperatura de la superficie del agua entre Africa y las Antillas se han enfriado un poco en las pasadas semanas y se han visto episodios fuertes de Polvo del desierto del Sahara desde Africa, estabilizando la masa de aire en el Atlantico tropical. Ellos esperan que en lo que resta de la temporada se presenten condiciones neutrales o la Niña debil. Para nosotros aca en el Caribe, la probabilidad de un azote es sobre lo normal. Para el mes de agosto su pronostico es 3 tormentas, 2 huracanes, 1 huracan intenso, para septiembre 5 tormentas, 4 huracanes y 2 huracanes intensos y de octubre a noviembre 5 tormentas, 2 huracanes , 1 huracan intenso. En la siguiente direccion pueden encontrar el informe completo.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2007/aug2007/aug2007.pdf

Maria

Nueva Onda Saliendo desde Africa

Saludos y buenas noches. Les habla su amiga Maria Santiago. Esta noche echaremos un vistazo a una onda tropical que esta por salir de las costas de Africa. En la imagen de las 8:00pm. la onda muestra buena conveccion, luce fuerte. Hay que ver que sucede cuando llegue al agua, no sea que pase lo que hemos visto con las anteriores que antes de salir de Africa lucen impresionantes pero una vez tocan agua pierden la conveccion. La nube de Polvo del Sahara sigue debil y esta a mitad de camino entre Africa y las Antillas. El wind shear esta cerca de 5 a 10 nudos al sur de la latitud 20N, cerca de las costas africanas y aumentando a 30 nudos hacia el oeste. Le vamos a seguir los pasos a esta onda bien de cerca por que ya las condiciones son mas favorables para ver sistemas entre Africa y las Antillas. El sistema de alta presion entre Africa y las Antillas parece estar algo hacia el este con dos bajas presiones cercanas. Hay que ver en los proximos dias como esto cambia, pues los pronosticos de los steering currents que son las que determinan hacia donde se van a mover los sistemas, no se pueden predecir con mucho tiempo de anticipacion. De eso va a depender hacia donde se muevan esas ondas que vemos salir desde Africa.

El Invest 99L ya no tiene posibilidades de desarrollo segun el NHC en su TWO de hoy a las 10:30pm.

Buenas noches!!

Maria

Invest 99L, Ondas desde Africa, Tropico en General.

Saludos y buenas noches. Soy María Santiago. Esta noche tenemos varios temas. Comenzado, el Invest 99L es catalogado esta noche por el NHC en el TWO de las 10:30opm como una onda fuerte que esta dejando lluvias en las islas Cayman, Nicaragua y Honduras. Segun el NHC las condiciones estan algo favorables para desarrollo pero la proximidad de 99L a tierra podria marcar pronto su final. Ya en su pagina web el NHC lo saco como Invest del Floater y el Navy tampoco lo tiene en su pagina. Parece que es el fin de 99L aunque estos sistemas a veces dan sorpresas.

Mientras, mirando hacia el continente africano tenemos que las ondas que hace algunos dias se veian robustas y organizadas han perdido conveccion y se debilitaron al tocar agua. Eso era lo que predecian los modelos. Actualmente tenemos tres ondas tropicales de camino entre Africa y las Antillas Menores. La primera esta cerca de la 19W, que fue la que vimos salir robusta hace dos dias y que salio un poco mas hacia el norte que las anteriores. Esta onda ha perdido conveccion al entrar al agua. La segunda onda tropical al tenemos cerca de la 36W y la tercera cerca de la 51W. Actualmente algunas de las condiciones en el area son las siguientes: la nube de SAL esta mucho mas debil que en anteriores ocasiones y un poco mas hacia el norte. El wind shear cerca de las costas de Africa esta entre 10 a 20 nudos aumentando hacia el oeste y cerca de 30 y 40 nudos cerca de Puerto Rico esto debido a la presencia de una vaguada que se espera nos afecte mañana. La temperatura de la superficie del agua entre Africa y las antillas esta caliente entre 85 grados F y aumentando hacia el oeste. Ya comenzo el mes de agosto y cada dia nos acercamos mas al pico de la temporada. Asi que de ahora en adelante hay que vigilar mas de cerca todo lo que sale desde Africa pues las condiciones necesarias para desarrollo ciclonico van a ponerse mas favorables a medida que avanzemos hacia septiembre.

En el area del Golfo de Mejico no se ven areas de interes ciclonico y se cancelo el vuelo del avion cazahuracan que estaba programado para hoy hacia el area de interes en el Golfo (asi como el que estaba programado para el Invest 99L).

Mañana regresare con otro update sobre el tropico. Gracias y buenas noches!!

Maria

Update de 99L sabado 4 de agosto de 2007 8:00am.

Hola, buenos dias!!. Esta mañana el Invest 99L ha regresado al site del Navy. Lo ubican cerca de la 14.2N 80.3W presion de 1010mb y vientos de 30 nudos. Parte de la conveccion de 99L se encuentra sobre America Central. En su TWO de hoy a las 5:30am, el NHC mantiene el mismo lenguaje que anoche, desarrollo de 99L estaria limitado dada su proximidad a tierra. Mas tarde les traere que es lo que esta pasando en el tropico. Buenos dias!

Maria

Invest 99L

Saludos. Soy María Santiago y agradezco a José la oportunidad que me da de colaborar en su pagina. Esta noche hablaremos sobre el Invest 99L el cual pasó al sur de Puerto Rico durante el dia de hoy. Durante la mañana se vio un sistema fuerte con tronadas y buena convección pero a la hora de la visita del avion cazahuracan, no pudo encontrar la circulacion cerrada que es necesaria para catalogarlo como un sistema ciclonico. En el Tropical Weather Update de las 10:30pm indican que luce mas desorganizado y que las condiciones favorables para desarrollo han disminuido.

000ABNT20 KNHC 030212TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1030 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2007FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITHTHE TROPICAL WAVE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THISSUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME AND THEPOTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION HAS DIMINISHED. THETROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD BRINGINGCLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRALAMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICOASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER AVILA

Como dice el TWO el Invest se espera que afecte Jamaica. La ultima corrida de los modelos lo pone en ruta hacia el oeste algunos en una ruta ONO. En cuanto a intensidad fluctuan entre tormenta y huracan categoria 2 pero las corridas de los modelos cambian cada seis horas. La ultima clasificacion Dvorak es de T 1.0/1.5 lo cual no ha variado mucho desde ayer.

Les seguire informando sobre la evolucion de 99L.

Maria

Actualización de HuracanesPR.Net desde el 2 al 5 de agosto

Desde el 2 de agosto hasta el 5 de agosto no podré actualizar la página de HuracanesPR.Net. Me place mucho el indicarles que durante estos días la actualización será a través de este Web Blog y estará a cargo de María Santiago, una excelente conocedora sobre todo lo que tiene que ver con huracanes en el trópico.

Agradezco la cooperación de Maria, ella les informara sobre cualquier situación importante que surja en el Atlántico en estos días.

Favor de visitar el blog para mantenerse al tanto estos días sobre los últimos acontecimientos en el trópico.

Gracias.